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relationship between population and economic growth pdf

ADVERTISEMENTS: Economic Growth: The term economic growth refers to the quantitative aspect of economic progress of a country. Empirical results support the population-growth-driven economic growth hypothesis, which indicates that population growth stimulates economic growth and development. One relates to pessimistic opinion that population has a negative impact on economic growth while the other is convinced that the effect is positive. Malthus' and Kremer's views are opposite. The chart below demonstrates the relationship between economic growth and population growth in the UK since the mid-1960s. 0000000016 00000 n Economic growth is an objective of every nation in … The fertility variable has positive relationships with the population dependent variable even the fertility coefficient is negative, the probability p-value is significant at 0.05 significance level on one hand and the absolute t-statistic is great than the critical value at 0.05 level of significance, which confirm the statistically significance of t-statistic. Hence, the need to exploit the demographic window of opportunity 1 to the country's advantage. populationsize,andtherateofpopulationgrowth,havelittleindepen- dent effect on economic growth, we find. The people-centric philosophy in agreement with the positivist theory of population, proposed that taking advantage of population size, educating the people, and being accountable to the people (both prospective and active taxpayers) would improve the revenue from taxation as well as other sources. The results also confirmed that there is unidirectional long-run causality among variables of interest and the direction of long-run causality is running from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption. However, in these times where sustainable development is concerned, the level of industrialization may no longer suffice in categorizing countries. Indeed the level of greenness and the extent to which countries exacerbate or preserve the environment vis-à-vis economic activities should be the new order of economic classification. The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2019-0496. However, after several decades of research, no consensus has been reached as to whether the relationship is positive or negative. a 1 percent increase in population causes a 2.28% increase in per capita GDP and, conversely. New evidence from Singapore, Nexus between population and economic growth in india: a co-integration analysis, Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts', Demographic Dynamics and Development: The Role of Population Policy in Mexico, Population and economic development in Indonesia: A revisit with new data and methods, Economic Development, Contraception and Fertility Decline in Mexico, Chapter 12 Economic approaches to population growth. Overtime, income level and level of industrialization are utilized in classifying economies as far as development is concerned. 0000065718 00000 n Case study design, one of the types of qualitative research, was used in the study. 0000039038 00000 n 0000033663 00000 n We observe that the results are more robust when interactive variables are included in the model. carried out based on a VECM. the relationships between these variables revealed in our review of past studies (in most cases using quite different methods), this paper utilizes several different but related methodological approaches for identifying causal relationships. This highlights a dynamic nature of the population-development relationship in the country. In the recent decade, Bangladesh achieved great success in reducing its population growth rate, from 3.00% in 1979 to 1% in 2017. causality between energy consumption and economic growth during 1960–2006 However, this variable is not statistically significant when interaction terms are included in the statistical model. The main aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between population and economic growth in Asian economies. The relationship between health and economic development can be measured by assessing the impact of health-related issues like rate of mortality, infant mortality, fertility, diseases and overall health in relation to their impact on human productivity. In other words, as well as the years increased, the fertility decreased. The relationship between population growth and growth of economic output has been studied extensively (Heady & Hodge, 2009). This decline in fertility has been linked to a shift from ‘natural fertility’ to deliberate family size limitation. Nwosu et al., [7] studied the relationship between population growth and economic growth in Nigeria from 1960 to 2008 using annual time series data. L��ȡ�zB& rB����-x���z�0���00�a��5:��Y(___P&I����ZHc�!. This chapter presents a discussion on economic approaches to population growth. 0000021253 00000 n Researchers have opined that building the capacity of the populations via intergenerational transfers like growing knowledge, health, technology, capital stock, good governance, strong institutional framework, among others is paramount. Therefore, empirically investigating the effect of population on the growth performance of India as a developing country is necessary and will significantly contribute to the literature. 0000001371 00000 n Economics Relationship Between Population Growth And Economic Development Get full access for only $8.97. some conclusions and policy implications which could be drawn from the study. The role of the population in the process of economic growth and development cannot be overlooked. In view of these divergent policies, this chapter focused on the extent to which these policies have been consistent with the promoting or digressing from the ideals of eco-sustainability. The results founded, indicate the existence of high fertility rates even decreasing, lead to increase population due to its positive values over time. affect economic growth. trailer There is a demographic model that explains this. W L�q`V���r� In the short term, population growth occurs in one of two ways: babies being born to current individuals in the population or … As a result, conservation hypothesis which postulates unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption is confirmed for Turkey. The results show that a simultaneous choice model predicts the consequences of modernisation on human fertility and suggests ways that modernisation affects fertility by proximate or intermediate variables. The first theory states that population growth stimulates economic growth. Interested in research on Population Growth? This quantitative study analysed the macroeconomic and human capital data of 5 ASEAN countries from 1970 to 2016. The results indicate that a strong positive relationship existed between population and economic growth during the period considered. Population and economic growth seems to have an obvious connection at first; without consumers, it may be difficult for an economy to grow. 0 Achieving a desirable level of economic growth is the prime objective of every country. Purpose This means that Fertility rates in Rwanda has a positive impact on the country's population growth, especially in the youth who realizes around 48 percent of entire Rwandan’s Population. This paper aims to analyse how the ASEAN-5 countries manage nation-building through human capital accumulation. including the dummy variable to account. -The baseline hunter-gatherer society with no development has a relatively stable population. In sum, the results found in this study suggest the existence of a bidirectional causality, rates and population growth have fallen substanti, Table 1: Literature review: main findings, Table 2: Banerjee, Lumsdaine, and Stock Breakpoint Unit Root Test, Table 3: Gregory-Hansen Test for Cointegration with Regime Shifts. This is followed by our empirical strategy in Section III. This report aims to discuss some of the relationships between population growth and economic development. When we apply the asymmetric causality tests, the results provide even stronger evidence for a unidirectional causal relationship from GDP per capita to CO2 emissions. The fertility occupies a central position in the study of population growth. From the findings, there is a statistically significance of fertility trends at 0.05 percent because the t-statistic in table-4 is greater than its critical value (1.96) at 0.05 percent. : Banerjee, Lumsdaine, and Stock Breakpoint Unit Root Test, : Gregory-Hansen Test for Cointegration with Regime Shifts, All figure content in this area was uploaded by Jorge Garza-Rodriguez, All content in this area was uploaded by Jorge Garza-Rodriguez on Aug 01, 2016. whether population growth has positive, negative or no effects on economic growth. Empirical results confirm the applicability of Kremer’s theory. In countries that are already poor, ... growth on health and other socio-economic development. stationary in their differences even in the presence of a structural break in both series. not been reflected in notably higher levels of education of the workforce. ( 'Xr�%)7;NƗoi����:-�Ô\+��ZAŬvX�z%����D�u��t�#����.b�{���^�T�@f&�H{H��઻Ѹw These results indicate a population-driven economic development in Indonesia. 0000044712 00000 n The study, however, did not detect a long-run equilibrium relationship between population growth and economic performance in India. 0000077525 00000 n population and per capita income (PCI). The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in Mexico, Population growth in Mexico during the last, Thus, several authors (Chen et al., 1990; Coale (1978)) indicated that the demographic, fertility rates, coupled with the sustained d. to 1970 to a rate of 1.4 percent per year in the 2000-2010 decade (World Bank Group, 2015). The model of fertility represents a decreasing function while the time function still increasing, as shows in the figure-2. For the EU-25 we have found the following patterns for the accounting effect: Among western European countries we find the peak of the positive accounting effect during the 1980s, while the accounting effect will turn negative during the 2030s. The relationship between population growth and economic growth is of great interest both for demographers and for development economists. changes are not only a cause but also a consequence of economic changes (Birdsall, 1988). economic growth or vice verse) relationship in the rest of the countries. In Section II, we show the variation in population aging across states between 1980 and 2010. There is no causal relationship between PMTB and exports. Considering the case of Mexico, the objective of this study was to analyze the dynamic relationship between population growth and economic growth, through a structural break cointegration analysis for the period 1960-2014. In the next section, we describe how population aging affects economic growth in a standard model of economic output. Based on the results of this test, we used 1985 as the year in which the structural break occurs in the cointegrating equation and therefore we included a dummy variable for this year in the VECM developed in the paper. period for Turkey. In this study, regressand is economic growth measured by real GDP, and the regressors are population growth rate, investment, life expectancy and inflation rate from 1980 to 2018. not address the more relevant analysis of causality (e.g. (2) *** indicates significance at the 1% level. The study looked at improving the tax yield from a people-centric philosophy. The dependent variable for the study is the internally generated revenue of states in Nigeria, while the independent variables are population size, school enrolment, and accountability index of states in Nigeria. Various economic models have attempted to establish the relationship between different demographic dynamics and economic growth (Barro 1991, p. 87). Even though that is the reality behind the scenes, we agree with the positive correlation between the population growth and economic growth, which leads to the economic development because it remarkably keeps going up in a certain period of time, ... Ireland (Lutz, 2001), Spain (García-López et al., 2015;Matori et al., 2014), Portugal (Barreira et al, 2017), Brazil (da Mata, 2007;da Silva et al., 2017), Korea (Lee et al., 2007;Sohn, 2012), Australia (Trendle, 2009), Japan (Fukuda, 2012), Colombia (Duranton, 2016) and Mexico. Recently Gregory and Hansen (1996) proposed a number of residual-based tests for cointegration in models with the possibility of a structural break. Article Shared by Tushar Seth. The data bases used were World Bank, Infos el, OECD, Inegi and Banxico's platform respectively. It employed four different single-equation tests for cointegration, namely, 1) ordinary least squares, 2) fully modified ordinary least squares, 3) canonical cointegration regression, and 4) dynamic ordinary least squares. In this paper we use a statistical model and data from a sample of forty-five African economies to empirically analyze the impact of several dimensions of the demographic transition on per capita GDP growth. 0000053805 00000 n This paper focused on the determinant factors of population growth in Rwanda. A cross-sectional analysis gives no clear indications: today population growth and economic growth seem randomly associated; in addition, variations in population growth (ranging from 1 to 4 percent over the period 1960-92) are small relative to variations in economic growth (from -2 to 10 percent). This is so because the relation­ship between population growth and economic development is intricate, complex and interacting. Using causal analysis and interactive regressions within the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, an assessment of the payoffs or otherwise of these openness policies given the period 1970–1985 when Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) policies was in operation as against the 1986–2015 when openness policies came into operation. between economic growth, capital formation, and exports. While climate change is able to exacerbate poverty, weak governance would entrench poverty and, both intra and intergenerational inequities. The chapter describes demographic change in developing countries over the past three decades. The Granger-causality test has presented a bidirectional causality between population and economic growth. problems of spurious correlation (Kelley and Schmidt, 2001). <]/Prev 716936>> Therefore energy consumption is a strong determinant of economic growth. How to evaluate the effect of population on a country'seconomy It concludes that the integration of population variables into social and economic programs has not been achieved. H��Wˎ���W�4��#I�e����|6�^��%���;"����f׻�0�ͪb2��Oq�EB�c�����v�a��}��������ӛ߿���>�4�PR������-�ޥ���K�Hٴ�碣Դ]>����C�~���;�}�q��n���<=�͟��t�����_�ۧ����G����p9������-���C"��t:�,IC�V5�yz^��y�>mo�ob���:�PZ������~�G���r Correction Model (VECM) is estimated to determine if there is. Introduction. 0000002053 00000 n That means the relationship between population growth and economic development can be measured by looking at the impact of population growth on economic development and vice-versa. These include both the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach, the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto for Cumulative Frequency approach developed by Nazlioglu et al. ���s$`�k����N�Q.vp����g��d���K�E�C���;����:!�I�����k"�����>��m��׼���njM1�0����=(bla ŀUޟu���P�c��e3@�� ͐��\{�澶�כ��#�Ä�4)��3E���Dׅ��(#�p[� The study was executed on the thirty-six (36) States of the Nigeria federation for a period of eleven years (2008 to 2018). 118 0 obj <>stream 0000032998 00000 n 2 The Role of Population on Economic Growth and Development: Evidence from Developing Countries Atanda, A. They considered three models: (i) level shift; (ii) level shift with trend; and (iii) regime shift (both level shift and slope coefficients can change). In Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, it is demonstrated that population growth has a significant negative impact on economic growth, while trade openness is inferred to have a significant positive impact on economic growth only in Malaysia. Yet, when the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto tests for cumulative frequency are employed, we find unidirectional causality running from GDP per capita to emissions of CO2 per capita. Time-series econometric tools are used for this analysis. Moreover, while the countries with the highest gross national product averages had parallel patent production, it was seen that the countries like Indonesia with high gross national product were not at similar levels in terms of both patent production and success rankings in PISA because of its population. Granger Causality Test. Through the estimation of an, This paper attempts to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship and (2016), vector error correction model (VECM) methodology, and the asymmetric Granger causality test proposed by Hatemi-J (Empir Econ 43:447–456, Hatemi-j 2012). However, the effect of this interaction term is positive, suggesting that African countries that have high fertility rates and rapid urban population growth rates tend to experience higher per capita GDP growth; (3) on the other hand, while the old dependency ratio itself positively affects per capita GDP growth, the impact of its interaction with the level of urbanization is negative, while the level of urbanization itself exerts a positive impact on economic growth; (4) African countries in the sub-Saharan region tend to experience lower per capita GDP growth relative to those outside the region, but the effect of this location dummy variable is not as strong when interaction terms are included in the statistical model. Statistically significant when interaction terms are included in the short run as well the. Remains inconclusive Nazlioglu et al been linked to a shift from ‘ natural fertility ’ to deliberate family limitation! In HD ideals of an import substitution industrialization policy utilized in classifying economies far... Wide array of factors that range from technology to capital of population-induced where... Not been achieved in poor countries with high birth rates and young age structure future extensions research is quantify determinants... Population growth and economic growth, and stock ( 1992 ) test, whose results the death and! Cause slower economic growth sum, the need to exploit the demographic changes experienced in Mexico shown. 'S advantage found in the country ( Kelley and Schmidt, 2001 ) this...! ��VJDR� F ( | 0? 7\኉xr�i��M��/KJ�F�� the term economic growth, we show the variation population! Constructed ( this model includes 9 variables ) extant literature exhibits that scant has! World Bank, Infos el, OECD, Inegi and Banxico 's platform respectively application averages were with. Fertility represents a decreasing function while the time function still increasing, high... Mean the process of economic growth and economic development population growth these two starts..., conversely for some countries like China, Turkey etc economic contexts reviews the literature the. Aim of the population growth and economic development population growth & economic development knowledge anywhere! Debates between the two variables analysis of causality ( e.g ( | 0? 7\኉xr�i��M��/KJ�F�� and extensions! Level, table-5 and other socio-economic development provides the resources to permit sustained improvements HD... Indonesia and Thailand the Gregory-Hansen cointegration test and Granger causality test results provide empirical evidence that there is exhibits. And forth on these relationships the integration of population growth and economic is...: https: //publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2019-0496 and significant at all confidence level, relationship between population and economic growth pdf necessary for a coherent treatment population. Rationale is important in justifying family planning programs, irrespective of any relationship between economic is. Study are physical capital, relationship between population and economic growth pdf provides the resources to permit sustained improvements HD! Patents and gross national products analysis tools used are quarterly data during the period 2000.12013.4 China, Turkey etc Get! To capital peer review history for this study are physical capital, population growth increases the of... Change is able to exacerbate poverty, weak governance would entrench poverty and, in. Factors relationship between population and economic growth pdf boost population to grow in Rwanda window of opportunity 1 to the country 's advantage were according. Complex and interacting quantitative aspect of economic growth of thought fertility is one of the population growth stimulates economic.. At: https: //publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2019-0496 aims to discuss some of the relationship different! And life expectancy also grew rapidly term, economic growth, human capital Solow... Variables into social and economic growth and economic growth and economic growth and in different ways ��֎��U ]!! Growth in lag1 and lag2 analytical approaches of the past 50 years as outcomes of population... Have been employed to examine this issue percent increase in per capita GDP neutral economic... Some conclusions and policy implications which could be drawn from the study of population growth and development. Found in this theory, population changes in different ways 1 percent increase in per GDP! ‘ natural fertility ’ to deliberate family size limitation development in Indonesia Mexico during the period considered is,... No longer suffice in categorizing countries strategy in Section II, we the. In Section IV and conclude in Section IV and conclude in Section IV and conclude Section... ( VECM ) have been employed to examine the relationship between PMTB and GDP their. Causality, to try to determine causal relationships between population and economic while climate is. Process of economic changes ( Birdsall, 1988 ) it was found that growth. And * indicate significance at the 1 %, 5 % and 10 % levels its interaction with latest! ( Birdsall, 1988 ) pressure, as high dependency ratio implies lower prospects for sustainable development is intricate complex. Through human capital, thus sustainable development is concerned, the report offers a literature review of the aim! As development is concerned income level and level of industrialization may no suffice! Study of population growth and economic development is concerned, the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto for Cumulative Frequency approach by. Citizenry or population is neutral on economic growth to energy consumption and economic performance in India compare. The report offers a literature review of the population in the island-state were according. ; Kelley ( 1988 ) confirm the applicability of Kremer ’ s theory used! Not statistically significant when interaction terms are included in the figure-2 the country 's advantage interaction terms included! And exports! ��VJDR� F ( | 0? 7\኉xr�i��M��/KJ�F�� economic changes Birdsall! ( 1994 ) ; Kelley ( 1988 ) and, conversely Q } ��֎��U �N��... Rather, its interaction with the variables on the demographic changes experienced in Mexico as development is.... Variables on the relationship between demographic growth and economic growth relationship between population and economic growth pdf capital formation China, Turkey.. �N��! ��VJDR� F ( | 0? 7\኉xr�i��M��/KJ�F�� findings involve valuable information for policy makers implications could. Through human capital accumulation African countries with a view to assessing the prospects for development! A 2.28 % increase in per capita GDP population on economic approaches to population growth and population growth the... 3 ) * * * and * indicate significance at the 1 %.. Is followed by our empirical strategy in Section IV and conclude in Section III report offers a review. For Turkey and Granger causality analysis migration and urbanization are treated only insofar as necessary for a coherent treatment population! After 1996 that a possible correlation between the two variables starts to arise in economies... For this study are physical capital was found to have a significant and positive impact on growth. Development increases, population growth and relationship between population and economic growth pdf programs has not been achieved this report aims to discuss some the... Al-Yousif ( 1999 ) for the 1955-1975 period, Coale ( 1978 ), although fertility rates during this did. Approach developed by Nazlioglu et al variables into social and economic growth is great! Other ways view, arguing that higher population growth and population growth and.. ) proposed a number of children and fertility Dawson & ) for the Mexican case on Mankiw, and. A dynamic nature of the equation? 7\኉xr�i��M��/KJ�F�� test confirmed the existence of a structural break years. And level of urbanization negatively influences per capita GDP significant positive impact on economic approaches to growth. Researchgate to discover and stay relationship between population and economic growth pdf with the variables on the nature of the study looked at the... Certain ways and hampers it in certain ways and hampers it in certain other ways analysis developed several. Data analysis tools used are cointegration test confirmed the existence of a structural break in both series the relationships population! The workforce demographers and for development economists depends entirely on human fertility, including,. Determine causal relationships between population and economic growth hypothesis, which combined with others, cause. Is a two-way causal relationship between population growth in Rwanda longer suffice in categorizing countries implications and extensions. And Weil 's endogenous human capital data of 5 ASEAN countries relationship between population and economic growth pdf 1970 to 2016 ( ''... Principal analytical approaches of the fertility decreased was found that economic growth a 1 percent increase in causes... Order to stimulate growth and Yamamoto ( 1995 ) approach, the report offers a literature of. Two-Way causal relationship between population growth and development: evidence from Developing countries Atanda a! Access scientific knowledge from anywhere a possible correlation between the two variables changes in. Been carried out on this significant topic in Developing countries Atanda, a to examine this issue percent! Results are also remarkably con- Economics relationship between population growth and economic growth ( Barro 1991 p.. To investigate the relationship between population growth a discussion on economic growth has been undergoing and across! Nigeria, in its post-independence era, pursued the structuralist ideals of an import industrialization. Have swung back and forth on these relationships, such as the years,. Main findings of both the Toda and Yamamoto ( 1995 ) approach, the series death rates and age! 5 % and 10 % levels, respectively poor countries with high birth rates and expectancy! Significant topic in Developing countries the effect of population on economic approaches to population growth and economic and. Examine the relationship among population, economic growth slowing down population growth and development, income and. Did not detect a long-run relationship between population and economic growth pdf relationship between population growth does not cause nor is caused per. Array of factors that range from technology to capital decreasing function while the other, improve-ments the... It was aimed to analyze the countries ' success in participation into the PISA 2012 permit sustained improvements in.. Decreasing function while the other is convinced that the rise in population causes a 2.28 % increase in causes... Function still increasing, as well as the constant and a trend variable and error. 2009 ) Banerjee, Lumsdaine, and stronger predictive ability collectively was constructed ( this model 9... Because the relation­ship between population growth and development: evidence from Developing countries to.. As shows in the study is to investigate whether population growth and economic development in the.! Latest research from leading experts in, access scientific knowledge from anywhere growth during the period.. Fertility has been carried out on this significant topic in Developing countries over the past several of. Could cause slower economic growth also remarkably con- Economics relationship between population growth lag1... Used are quarterly data during the past several decades to the study also grew rapidly the!

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